Chelsea could take a European ban if they fail to qualify for the Champions League, football finance expert Stefan Borson claims.
The London club are currently seventh on the league table and risk missing out of the Champions League. Five Premier League teams will play at the competition next season, and it’s looking like Chelsea will not qualify.
Chelsea are seven points behind Liverpool in fifth, and have played a game fewer than the Reds, and only six points clear of Newcastle in 14th place.
In a case whereby the likes of Newcastle hit form and Chelsea continue their stumble, Liam Rosenoir’s team might end up not playing in Europe next season, including the Europa League or Conference League.
Chelsea have been forced to reach settlements with the Premier League and UEFA in recent years over breaches of financial rules.
So the prospect of failing to qualify for next season’s Champions League – and the financial implications that come with it – has raised questions.
Chelsea players face the fans after the Premier League match at the American Express Stadium, Brighton. (Photo by Gareth Fuller/PA Images via Getty Images)
Digging into the details on White and Jordan, Borson suggested the club could voluntarily breach their settlement with UEFA and accept a year-long ban from European competitions.
He said: “The Champions League thing is obviously a very significant issue for a club with their [Chelsea’s] cost base and with their losses.
“And they are telling everyone who is asking that they’re operationally profitable right now.
“It seems to me that you have to strip out all of the player amortisation, which is about £216million this year, so sure, if you strip out one of the biggest lines in your profit and loss, then maybe, you’re operationally profitable.
“But even then, it’s a challenge going forward as they won’t have the Club World Cup money, and if they drop out of the Champions League, obviously they’ll also drop £80m of UEFA prize money…
“It might be mitigated by a Europa League final, that could give them £40m. Can they still sell Stamford Bridge out in the Europa? Probably pretty close, so they will do £100m matchday if they’re in Europe.”
Chelsea fans joined by the fans of French club Strasbourg hold a protest against BlueCo group. (Photo by Glyn KIRK / AFP via Getty Images)
He continued: “The big issue they’re going to have is if they fall into the Conference League.
“They’ve got a very, very challenging situation with the settlement they agreed with UEFA, if they’re not in the Champions League.
“That is a settlement agreement, which I’ll just speculate now… I think there’s a chance that if they fall into the Conference League, or even Europa League, that they take the decision to breach the settlement agreement and to take a ban like Juventus did in 2023.
“So they’d admit the breach by more than €20m, they pay the fine, the settlement agreement is ripped up, they drop out of Europe for a year, because who wants Conference League anyway, and they reset the settlement agreement going forward.
“Because to me, the settlement agreement that’s currently drafted looks extremely challenging for the next season, particularly if they’re not in the Champions League, but even if they are, it’s the season after.
“When you keep kicking the can down the road as Chelsea have done, and you find that the rules are changing to exclude the loophole busters that they have – the hotels, the carparks, the women’s team – once you run out of those things, you’ve got to sell players and you’ve got to sell players for profit.
“That’s going to be a big challenge for them, aside from the players they don’t want to sell. Of course they can sell Palmer for a profit…but they don’t want to do that, what they want to do is sell players they’re happy to sell, but there’s no profit in them.”
Chelsea can still make it into the Champions League by finishing sixth, but they need a big favour from Liverpool and Aston Villa.
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa will have to win the Europa League and finish fifth in the League rather than fourth.
If that were the case, sixth would seal a Champions League place.
